Home Sales

Economists and real estate experts project U.S. home prices to bottom out late next year or in early 2013, according to Zillow's Home Price Expectations Survey.  http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=252'

Home Prices May Not Have Hit Bottom Yet

Home prices, which have been sputtering along for much of the year, are likely to dip further by the end of 2011, by  approximately 10%, according to the results of a nationwide industry survey of real estate agents. http://campbellsurveys.com/housingpulse/Pulse.htm  The shadow inventory will continue  to effect the real estate market for another 2-5 years.

Survey: U.S. Housing May Not Recover Until 2014

A survey by Trulia Inc. and RealtyTrac Inc. released yesterday showed that more than half of U.S. homeowners and renters say that housing will not recover until at least 2014, reflecting a deepening pessimism about the real estate market, Bloomberg News reported yesterday. The survey, taken in April, found that 54 percent of respondents do not expect a recovery for at least three years, up from 34 percent in November, the two real estate data companies said today. Those who see a turnaround by the end of next year fell to 15 percent from 27 percent. The housing market is weakening as near record-low interest rates and falling prices fail to boost demand after the expiration of a federal tax credit for homebuyers last year. Values will come under more pressure as 1.8 million properties that are delinquent or in foreclosure are added to the inventory of unsold homes, according to a March estimate by CoreLogic Inc., a real estate information firm in Santa Ana, Calif.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2011-05-18/housing-in-u-s-may-not-recover-until-at-least-2014-homeowner-survey-says.html

Roughly One-Third Of Homeowners Have Underwater Mortgages

Nearly one-third of U.S. homeowners owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth, according to a new national survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports. The new survey, which polled 720 Americans.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/housing/march_2011/31_say_they_owe_more_on_their_mortgage_than_their_home_is_worth

If someone can’t afford to make their increased mortgage payments, 22% of all Americans say it’s better for the government to assist them with their payments than it is for them to be forced to sell their house. But as they have for months, a sizable majority (64%) believes it’s better for the person to sell their house and find a less expensive one. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided.


In a survey last September, 39% of Americans said the government should encourage home ownership through incentives, but 51% said the government should stay out of the housing market all together.

Home Values

According to CoreLogic’s study, the five states with the greatest home price depreciation in January were: Idaho (-15.7 percent), Alabama (-12.1 percent), Arizona (-11 percent), Oregon (-9.9 percent), and Utah (-9.8 percent).


The five states with the highest appreciation were: West Virginia (+5.5 percent), North Dakota (+3.3 percent), New York (+1.9 percent), Hawaii (+0.7 percent), and Wyoming (+0.2 percent).

Nationwide, CoreLogic says home prices have dropped 32.8 percent from their peak in April 2006, largely due to increased volumes of distressed properties on the market.

Banks Push Home Buyers To Put Down More Cash

The down payments demanded by banks of homebuyers have ballooned since the housing bust, forcing many people to rethink what they can afford and potentially shrinking the pool of eligible buyers, the Wall Street Journal reported today. Last week, the Obama administration called for gradually raising down payments to a minimum of 10 percent on conventional loans, meaning those that can be bought or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The median down payment in nine major U.S. cities rose to 22 percent last year on properties purchased through conventional mortgages. FHA-backed mortgages, which require 3.5 percent up front, made up about half of loans for home purchases last year, according to housing-research firm Zelman & Associates, but borrowers often pay higher interest rates and must pay private mortgage insurance, often driving their monthly payments higher.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703312904576146532935600542.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_personalfinance#printMode

DISTRESSED HOMES SELL AT 26 PERCENT DISCOUNT IN U.S., SUPPLY SWELLS

RealtyTrac Inc. reported today that homes in the foreclosure process sold at an average 26 percent discount in the second quarter as almost one-fourth of all U.S. transactions involved properties in some stage of mortgage distress, Bloomberg news reported today. Foreclosures are adding to a swelling U.S. housing supply as an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent and the end of a federal homebuyer tax credit dampen purchases. A total of 248,534 homes that sold in the period had received a default or auction notice or been seized by banks, RealtyTrac said. The number was up 5 percent from the first quarter and down 20 percent from a year earlier, according to the Irvine, Calif.-based data seller. About 24 percent of all homes sold were in some stage of foreclosure, down from 31 percent in the first quarter. The average price of a distressed property was $174,198, up from $171,971, the company said.

Chart of Sales
http://charts.abi.org/

Home Sales

http://www.realtor.org/research/research/phsdata

National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) reported Thursday that its Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 5.2 percent from last month’s reading. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

The index remains 19 percent below measurements recorded a year ago, but the month-to-month jump was an unexpected development, and some analysts are saying it may be a sign that the post-tax credit lull in home sales will soon come to an end. A group of economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting the pending sales index to fall by 1 percent.

The national index had fallen 29.9 percent based on contract signings in May – closely reflected in July’s 27 percent drop in actual existing-home sales. It lost another 2.8 percent after NAR’s analysis of June’s contracts, likely a good indicator of where August’s actual sales will end up. The latest 5.2 percent increase could be a telling sign of September’s sales numbers.